Humans tend to make mistakes when thinking about existential risks. Part of the problem is that risk assessment is very difficult when risks are complex and far in the future. However, even if we acknowledge that difficulty and begin to diligently work towards averting risks, we still have to learn to think clearly. This turns […]
Tag: survivorship bias
Our unfriendly universe: Risks of human extinction by nature
Nature poses many risks to humanity. We examine the most dangerous natural disasters and estimate the likelihood that they will cause human extinction.
How likely is human extinction due to a natural pandemic?
A pandemic is the rapid spread of an infectious disease across a large region. Global pandemics will likely occur in the future, but their danger is very hard to estimate. So far, pandemics have received far more attention than other natural existential threats and our analysis below indicates that this level of attention is appropriate. […]
What will cause human extinction: Natural disaster or human folly?
Existential risks can be divided into two groups: those that are caused by nature and those that are caused by humans (also known as anthropogenic risks). Natural risks come from the physical processes of the Earth, sun, and universe at large. These events have always been a danger to all life on Earth, including humanity. […]